20.500.12556/ReVIS-12237 Does Higher Education Dropout in Slovenia Increase? An Empirical Assessment Using Robust and Bayesian Methods Ali se v Sloveniji povečuje osip v visokem šolstvu? Empirična ocena z uporabo robustnih in Bayesovskih metod Purpose: The study aims to assess whether dropout rates in Slovenian higher education have increased over time, focusing on persistence and potential trends between 2011 and 2019. It also seeks to evaluate how robust and Bayesian statistical methods can improve dropout analysis when only limited data are available. Study design/methodology/approach: The research uses aggregated dropout data from nine consecutive student cohorts (2011–2019) within the Targeted Research Programme (CRP V5-2360). The analysis combines descriptive statistics, robust methods (Theil–Sen estimator with bootstrap confidence intervals), and Bayesian regression modelling with weakly informative priors. This mixed methodological framework is particularly suitable for short time series and allows probabilistic interpretation of results. Findings: The results reveal that dropout in Slovenia is persistently high, averaging around 51%. Two distinct phases were identified: a decline between 2011 and 2015, followed by renewed growth from 2016 onwards. While classical robust methods yielded inconclusive results regarding a linear trend, Bayesian analysis indicated with high posterior probability (>95%) that dropout has been increasing by about one percentage point per year since 2015. Originality/value: This study contributes substantively by confirming that Slovenia belongs to the group of European countries with exceptionally high and persistent dropout levels. Methodologically, it demonstrates the added value of applying robust and Bayesian approaches to small-sample educational data, offering more reliable and nuanced insights than conventional frequentist techniques. Namen:Študija želi oceniti, ali se je stopnja osipa v slovenskem visokem šolstvu sčasoma povečala, pri čemer se osredotoča na vztrajnost in potencialne trende med letoma 2011 in 2019. Prav tako želi oceniti, kako lahko robustne in Bayesovske statistične metode izboljšajo analizo osipa, kadar je na voljo le omejena količina podatkov. Oblika študije/metodologija/pristop: Raziskava uporablja agregatne podatke o osipu iz devetih zaporednih kohort študentov (2011–2019) v okviru ciljnega raziskovalnega programa (CRP V5-2360). Analiza združuje opisno statistiko, robustne metode (Theil-Senov ocenjevalec z bootstrapovskimi intervalom zaupanja) in bayesovsko regresijsko modeliranje s šibko informativnimi predpostavkami. Ta mešani metodološki okvir je še posebej primeren za kratke časovne vrste in omogoča verjetnostno interpretacijo rezultatov. Ugotovitve: Rezultati kažejo, da je osip v Sloveniji vztrajno visok, v povprečju okoli 51 %. Opredeljeni sta bili dve različni fazi: upad med letoma 2011 in 2015, ki mu je sledila ponovna rast od leta 2016 dalje. Medtem ko so klasične robustne metode prinesle nejasne rezultate glede linearnega trenda, je bayesovska analiza z visoko posteriorno verjetnostjo (>95 %) pokazala, da se osip od leta 2015 povečuje za približno en odstotek na leto. Izvirnost/vrednost: Ta študija pomembno prispeva k potrditvi, da Slovenija spada v skupino evropskih držav z izjemno visoko in vztrajno stopnjo osipa. Metodološko dokazuje dodano vrednost uporabe robustnih in bayesovskih pristopov za izobraževalne podatke iz majhnih vzorcev, ki ponujajo zanesljivejše in natančnejše ugotovitve kot konvencionalne frekventistične tehnike.Ključne besede: osip v visokem šolstvu, vztrajnost osipa, analiza trendov, Theil-Senov ocenjevalec, bayesovski pristop, slovenski visokošolski sistem higher education dropout dropout persistence trend analysis Theil–Sen estimator Bayesian approach Slovenian higher education syste true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2025-09-19 13:05:21 2025-09-19 13:05:21 2025-10-01 14:26:16 0000-00-00 00:00:00 0 0 0 no. 2 Vol. 14 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2025-08-29 2232-5107 2232-5697 248939011 https://doi.org/10.53615/2232-5697.14.285-299 https://toknowpress.net/submission/index.php/ijmkl/article/download/229/140 1 8930c5a5-9548-11f0-9bb7-001a4af901a5 https://revis.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=14296 https://toknowpress.net/submission/index.php/ijmkl/article/download/229/140 1 892e5012-9548-11f0-9bb7-001a4af901a5 https://revis.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=14295 RAZ_Pezdir_Rado_0.pdf RAZ_Pezdir_Rado_0.pdf 1 E75C49D51EAA665C8E500B899DF5DD1C 83b04e307da3c558c6199b0858820f1358026028773b0d25da0b5ada121aae14 e7fd1ffc-9548-11f0-9bb7-001a4af901a5 https://revis.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=14297 Mednarodna fakulteta za družbene in poslovne študije 0 0 0