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Title:Vpliv opozorilnega sistema za zaviranje v sili za motoriste na prometno varnost – hibridni pristop z uporabo sistemske dinamike in agentnega modeliranja : doktorska disertacija
Authors:ID Barbo, Matej (Author)
ID Rodič, Blaž (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Files:.pdf DR_2023_Matej_Barbo.pdf (15,99 MB)
MD5: B56884310C7F01599877F971CD9E14C4
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Doctoral dissertation
Typology:2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
Organization:FIŠ - Faculty of Information Studies in Novo mesto
Abstract:V državah EU vsako leto umre več tisoč voznikov in sopotnikov enoslednih motornih vozil oz. vozil PTW (angl. PTW, Powered Two-Wheeler). Kljub velikemu tveganju za nastanek poškodb in izgubo življenja je raziskav s tega področja relativno malo. Razvoj in prodor varnostnih elementov v segment vozil PTW napreduje relativno počasi, hkrati pa ostaja motorno kolo za izgubo življenja najbolj tvegano prevozno sredstvo na prevoženi kilometer. Del nesreč predstavljajo naleti, tj. trki drugih vozil v vozilo PTW od zadaj. V okviru doktorske disertacije predstavljamo hibridni, tj. večmetodni simulacijski model, ki omogoča simulacijo okoliščin, v katerih prihaja do naletov zasledujočih vozil na vozila PTW. Z uporabo predstavljenega modela podajamo oceno vpliva ESS in RECAS sistema za motorna kolesa znotraj prometnega sistema Evropske unije na zmanjšanje števila prometnih nesreč in njihovih posledic ter s tem potencialnega doprinosa k uresničitvi EU strategije Vision Zero: »zmanjšati število smrtnih žrtev na evropskih cestah na skoraj nič do leta 2050«. Obravnavani ESS in RECAS sistem MEBWS (angl. MEBWS, Motorcycle Emergency Braking Warning System) je bil razvit na Fakulteti za informacijske študije v Novem mestu in patentiran. Rezultati simulacij na podlagi podatkov o prometnih nesrečah v EU so pokazali, da bi se pri 100-odstotnem prodoru sistema MEBWS skupno število naletov zmanjšalo za 29,50 %, kar na osnovi referenčnih stroškov prometnih nesreč v EU predstavlja prihranek v vrednosti 43.145.172 €. Z vklopljenim sistemom MEBWS se je število prometnih nesreč pri simulacijskem scenariju Moto, normal drive zmanjšalo za 33,15 %, pri simulacijskem scenariju Moto, emergency stop za 27,76 %, pri simulacijskem scenariju Moto, not moving pa za 28,76 %. V primerih, ko nesreče zaradi počasne reakcije zasledujočega voznika ali zelo visoke relativne hitrosti vozil ni bilo mogoče preprečiti, je sistem MEBWS prispeval k zmanjšanju relativne hitrosti ob trku. Pri predpostavki, da je teža poškodb proporcionalna s količino sproščene kinetične energije, je sistem MEBWS omogočil zmanjšanje posledic nesreče oz. resnosti poškodb do 11,198 %.
Keywords:zaviranje, izogibanje trkom, nalet, varnost motoristov, opozorilni signali, opozorilni sistemi, prometne nesreče, simulacijsko modeliranje
Place of publishing:Novo mesto
Place of performance:Novo mesto
Publisher:[M. Barbo]
Year of publishing:2023
Year of performance:2023
Number of pages:XXIII, 207 str.
PID:20.500.12556/ReVIS-10077 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:169584899 New window
UDC:004.9:629.326-59(043.3)
Note:Na ov.: Doktorska disertacija;
Publication date in ReVIS:09.11.2023
Views:836
Downloads:29
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Secondary language

Language:English
Abstract:Every year several thousand powered two-wheeler (PTW) drivers and passengers die in the EU. Despite the much higher risk of death and injuries for PTW vs. car users, there has been relatively little research on PTW safety. The development and market penetration of safety aids for PTWs is progressing relatively slowly, and motorcycle remains the most dangerous means of transportation per passenger kilometer. Many injuries occur in rear-end collisions, when PTW is struck from the rear by another vehicle. In doctoral dissertation we present a hybrid i.e., multi-method simulation model that allows the simulation of various situations in which a vehicle may collide with the rear end of a PTW. We have used this model to estimate the impact of market penetration of a motorcycle ESS & RECAS system within the EU transport system on the reduction of number of traffic accidents and their consequences and thus potential contribution to the EU “Vision Zero” goal: “reduce road deaths to almost zero by 2050”. The ESS & RECAS system in question, MEBWS (Motorcycle Emergency Braking Warning System), has been developed at the Faculty of Information Studies in Novo mesto and patented. Simulation results using EU traffic accident data show that with 100% EU market penetration of the MEBWS system, the total number of PTW rear-end collisions would decrease by 29.50%, resulting in reduction of economic crash costs in the amount of €43,145,172 according to the standard EU methodology. With the MEBWS system enabled, the number of traffic accidents in the standard rear-end collision emergency braking scenarios Moto, normal drive, Moto, emergency stop and Moto, not moving decreased by 33.15%, 27.76% and 28.76%, respectively. In cases when the collision could not be prevented due to slow response of the following driver or very high relative speed of the vehicles, MEBWS reduced the relative speed at impact, thereby reducing the severity of injuries up to 11.198% as estimated by the amount of kinetic energy released at collision.
Keywords:Collision avoidance, Rear-end accident, Motorcycle safety, Emergency stop signal, Rear-end collision alert signal, Motorcycle emergency braking warning system, Traffic accident simulation modelling


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