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Title: Razvoj generičnega dinamičnega modela konflikta v interakciji z organizacijskim okoljem : doktorska disertacija Authors: ID Turnšek, Tit (Author) ID Usenik, Janez (Mentor) More about this mentor... Files: RAZ_Turnsek_Tit_i2014.pdf (5,12 MB) MD5: 95FDF4B1A2A2BA502D0FF748BF11AC04   Language: Slovenian Work type: Doctoral dissertation Typology: 2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation Organization: FOŠ - Faculty of Organisation Studies Novo mesto Abstract: Raziskovalno vprašanje (RV): Osnovno vprašanje je, kako modelirati konflikt, ki upošteva interakcijo med konfliktom in zunanjimi zainteresiranimi? Namen: Primarni namen disertacije je definicija in razvoj generičnega modela konflikta, ki vključuje interakcijo med konfliktom in njegovo okolico. Disertacija se omejuje na znotraj organizacijske konflikte. Metoda: Za modeliranje dinamike konflikta je uporabljena paradigma sistemske dinamike. Ni neobičajno, da se izbere paradigma sistemske dinamike za modeliranje organizacijskih problemov. Po kratkem pregledu teorij konfliktov, relevantnih za njihovo dinamiko, je napravljen povzetek, poimenovan izhodiščna teorija. Konflikt je opredeljen kot destruktivna , ne funkcionalna interakcija med akterji. Konflikti nastanejo iz zaznavanja nezdružljivosti ciljev, interesov, vrednot, verovanj, preferenc itd ., ki se zrcalijo v sovražnih čustvenih stanjih akterjev. Težo konflikta lahko opredelimo kot raven teh čustvenih stanj. Obravnavana je metodologija razvoja kvalitativnih modelov sistemske dinamike, ki smo jih poimenovali 'modeli zaključenih zank', poznani tudi kot diagrami zaključenih zank. Predstavljen je kvalitativni generični model konflikta z interakcijo z okoljem. Obravnavani so kvantitativni dinamični modeli konflikta. Več pozornosti je posvečene trem modelom: Richardsonovemu modelu oboroževalne tekme, modelu interakcije med zakonskimi pari, ki so ga razvili Gottman, Murray in sod ter modelu skupinskih interakcij Colemana in sod. Najprej smo postavili kvantitativni model izoliranega konflikta . Model izhaja iz modela Colemana in drugih, toda je modificiran v skladu z izhodiščno teorijo. Model je predstavljen z dvema nelinearnima diferencialnima enačbama in tudi kot nivo-tok model. Vedno obstaja zakasnitev med dogodki v procesu (konfliktu) ter zavedanjem in reakcijo zunanjih zainteresiranih akterjev, v našem primeru menedžmenta. Kot zakasnitev je v modelu implementirano glajenje tretje stopnje. Postavljeni sta dve vprašanji: Kako menedžment vpliva na konflikt, in kako modelirati ta vpliv? S stališča modeliranja sta dve možnosti. Prva je, da menedžment vpliva na oba akterja s ciljem, da se zmanjša čustvena raven sovražnosti akterjev. Druga možnost je, da se odloči spremeniti vedenjske značilnosti akterjev. Iz teh dveh možnosti izhajata dva različna modela. Oba sta v disertaciji predstavljena. Za modeliranje odločanja in reagiranja menedžmenta je izbran sistem mehkega odločanja. Pozornost je posvečena modeliranju mehkega odločanja z orodji sistemske dinamike. Rezultati: Rezultati simulacije kažejo, da dinamika (časovno obnašanje) modelov, ki smo jih razvili, ni v nasprotju s teorijami na osnovi katerih so modeli postavljeni. Organizacija: Modeli dajejo vpogled v 'notranjost' dinamike znotraj-organizacijskih konfliktov. Ta pogled je bistven za razumevanje osnovnih mehanizmov, ki poganjajo konflikte in tudi kako jih uspešno reševati. Modeli prispevajo k povečanju veščin uspešnega reševanja konfliktov. ii Družba: Predstavljena struktura generičnega kvantitativnega dinamičnega modela konflikta v interakciji z organizacijskim okoljem je veljavna tudi za konflikte na drugih ravneh, od med osebnega do meddržavnega nivoja. Originalnost: Metodologija razvoja organizacijskih modelov, ki te melji na paradigmi sistemske dinamike, je poznana. Računalniški modeli sistemske dinamike, ki so zasnovani na sistemih diferencialnih enačb, lahko vključujejo tudi stohastične in mehke spremenljivke. V disertaciji smo postavili model konflikta kot model sistemske dinamike in ga povezali z modelom sistema mehkega upravljanja, ki je zasnovan na paradigmi mehke logike. Tako smo dobili hibridni model mehke logike in sistemske dinamike. Model sistema mehkega odločanja v tem hibridnem modelu smo opredelili kar se da aksiomatično. Jasno je pokazana plastna struktura modela. Vsako plast je mogoče širiti ali pa spremeniti algoritme ne glede na druge plasti. To je inovativen pristop pri modeliranju dinamike konfliktov. S tega vidika disertacija prispeva k razvoju metodologije hibridnih sistemov sistemske dinamike in mehke logike. In konkretno tak hibridni generični model konflikta po našem vedenju še ne obstaja. Omejitve/nadaljnje raziskovanje: V disertaciji so predstavljene predpostavke modela. Ena od teh je, da so parametri konstante. Popolnoma je odprto vprašanje, kako določati vrednosti parametrov, iz opazovanja konkretnega modela. Predstavljeni modeli predpostavljajo samo enega zunanjega zainteresiranega (menedžment). Konflikti na drugih ravneh družbe imajo več kot enega zunanjega zainteresiranega in tudi nima vsak od njih interesa rešiti konflikta. To prav posebej velja za mednarodne konflikte. Model je lahko razširjen v različnih smereh. Keywords: konflikt, nivo-tok modeli, zaključene zanke, sistemska dinamika, sistem mehkega odločanja, organizacijske zakasnitve, glajenje tretjega reda, tretji red, disertacije Place of publishing: Novo mesto Place of performance: Novo mesto Publisher: [T. Turnšek] Year of publishing: 2014 Year of performance: 2014 Number of pages: XII, 159 str., [20] str. pril. PID: 20.500.12556/ReVIS-7871  COBISS.SI-ID: 2048230402  UDC: 51-7:005.7(043.3) Note: Nasl. na ov.: Doktorska disertacija študijski program tretje stopnje; Publication date in ReVIS: 23.07.2021 Views: 1288 Downloads: 86 Metadata:    Cite this work Plain text BibTeX EndNote XML EndNote/Refer RIS ABNT ACM Ref AMA APA Chicago 17th Author-Date Harvard IEEE ISO 690 MLA Vancouver : Copy citation

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Language:	English
Abstract:	Research Question (RQ): The basic question is how to model conflicts which take in account the interaction between conflict and outside stakeholders? Purpose: The primary goal of the dissertation is to define and develop a generic model of the conflict which includes the interaction between conflict and its environment. The dissertation is limited to intra-organizational conflicts. Method: A system dynamics paradigm to model the dynamics of conflict is used. It is not unusual to use this paradigm to model dynamics of social interactions and organizational problems. After a short overview of conflict theories, relevant to conflict dynamics, the conclusion is made, and called starting theory. Con flict is defined as destructive, dysfunctional interaction between actors. Conflicts arise out of the perception of incompatibility of goals, interests, values, belief s, preferences etc., and are mirrored in the hostile emotional states of actors. The gravity of conflict can be measured as a level of these emotional states. The methodology of developing qua litative system dynamics models, which we called close loop models and are also known as c lose loop diagrams is discussed. The close-loop model of the generic model of conflict and itʼs interaction with the environment is presented. Different quantitative conflict dynamics models are presented. More attention has been devoted to three models: the Richardson Arms race model, the Gottman, Murray et al. model of marital interactions, and the Coleman et a l. model of group interactions. First we set up a quantitative generic model of isolated conflic t, which arises out of the Coleman et al model, but is modified in accordance with starting theory. The model is presented as a nonlinear system and consists of two differential e quations, and as a stock-flow model. There is always a delay between the events in the process (conflict), the awareness of it and the reaction of the interested actors - stakeholders from outside. Third order smoothing is selected to implement the intra-organizational delays. Two questions are discussed. How does management influence the conflict, and how to model this influence? In terms of the model, there are two possibilities. First, management trie s to lower the gravity of conflict, which means to diminish the hostile emotional states of a ctors involved in the conflict. Second, management decides to change the intrinsic characte ristics of actors. According to these two possibilities, two different models are presented. Fuzzy logic inference is selected to mimic human reactions. The focus is on the implementation of fuzzy logic inference with a system dynamics tool. Results: The simulation results show that the dynamic of mod el behavior (over time) is not discordant with the theory on which the generic model is based. iv Organization: The model gives an inside view in to the dynamics of inter-organizational conflicts. Such a view is essential to understand the basic mechanism of conflict dynamics and how to effectively resolve conflicts. The model contributes to enhance managerial skills managerial skills to effectively resolve the confli cts. Society: The structure of the presented generic quantitative dynamic model of conflict in interaction with its organizational surroundings is valid for conflicts from interpersonal to an inter-states level. Originality: The methodology of the modeling of organizational problems, based on the paradigm of system dynamics is known. Computational models of system dynamics, which are based on systems of differential equations, may also include stochastic and fuzzy variables. In the dissertation, we set up a model o f conflict as a model of system dynamics and integrated it with a model of a fuzzy inference sys tem that is based on the paradigm of fuzzy logic. So we get a hybrid model of fuzzy logic and system dynamics. We specify the fuzzy inference system to be as axiomatic as possible. We can clearly see the layered structure of the model. Every layer could be expanded or modified without influencing the other layers. This is a new innovative approach to model conflict dynamics. In this respect the dissertation contributes to the methodology of the development of hybrid systems, which combine a fuzzy logic and system dynamics approach. According to our knowledge, such hybrid models of conflict don't exist. Limitations/further research: Some suppositions on which the model is based are p resented. One of them is that parameters of the model are constants. Fully open is the question how to determine the values of parameters from the observation of specific conflicts. The presented models suppose just one outside stakeholder (manage ment). Conflicts on other levels of society have more than one stakeholder, and not every stakeholder is interested in diminishing the conflict. This is particularly valid for intern ational conflicts. The models could be widened in different directions.
Keywords:	conflict, stock-flow modeling, system dynamics, fuzzy inference, close-loop modeling, intra-organizational delays, third order, third order smoothing, doctoral dissertation

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